The International Energy Agency (IEA) has lowered its forecasts for global oil supply and demand, warning that the lack of progress toward resolving the U.S.-Iran war is delaying the return of Middle Eastern oil flows to normal levels until 2027 and putting further pressure on fuel prices.
In its monthly report released Friday, the agency projected that global oil supply would decline by around 2.5 million barrels per day year-on-year this year, compared with its previous August estimate of a 1.6 million-barrel-per-day decline.
The IEA said oil inventories have so far played a crucial role in balancing the market, but warned that shrinking spare stocks and the global refining system operating close to full capacity are increasing the risk of tighter supplies.
The agency stressed that progress toward resolving the conflicts in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine war, now in its fifth year, has become increasingly urgent to prevent further shortages and pressure on global oil markets.
